Probabilities of Pulling Foil Premium Cards From Standard Set Booster Packs in Magic: The Gathering

In the Magic: The Gathering trading card game, Urza's Legacy was the first set to receive foil premium cards from booster packs. Foil versions of different card rarities were available in the MTG set. Over time, the introduction of mythic cards changed the rarities available in booster packs. The rate of pulling a foil card out of a booster pack has changed over time as well. In 2019, the pull rate of foil cards increased with the introduction of Core Set 2020. This article will look at the different pull rates of foil cards before and after the release of Core Set 2020. The Calculations and information related to this article are available here.

Probabilities of Pulling Foil Premium Cards Before Core Set 2020
When opening booster packs, foil cards had given odds of 1 in 67 cards. Each booster box contained at least one foil rare (or mythic) beside foil common and uncommon cards. The estimated probability of a foil rare was 1 in 540 cards or 1 in 36 booster packs. The consensus was that a case of booster boxes contained one foil mythic. The probability of pulling one foil mythic in six booster boxes is 1 in 3,240 cards or 1 in 216 booster packs. An average booster box contained eight foil cards in summation, with one being a foil rare or mythic. 

​Probabilities of Pulling Foil Premium Cards in Core Set 2020
The given odds of pulling a foil card in Core 2020 is 1 in 45 cards or 1 in 3 booster packs. If the ratio between pulling a foil non-rare and foil rare remains the same from previous sets, then the probability of pulling a foil rare becomes 1 in 363 cards or 1 in 24 booster packs. On average, a booster box should contain two foil rares. Using the same previous ratio of a foil rare to a foil mythic, the estimated probability of pulling a foil mythic is 1 in 2,160 cards or 1 in 144 packs. Essentially, 1 in 4 booster boxes may contain a foil mythic. When comparing the probabilities before and after the release of Core 2020, there is a 50% increase in the chance of pulling a foil rare or mythic rare.   ​

Foil cards from Core 2020

Probabilities of Pulling Specific Foil Rare and Mythic Premium Cards in Core 2020
​There are 53 rare and 15 mythic cards in Core 2020. This information, along with the calculated foil probabilities for Core 2020, can be used to find probabilities for specific foil cards. The result of multiplying (1/53) by (1/24) is 0.08% or 1 in 1,272 booster packs, which is the estimated probability of pulling a specific foil rare from a booster pack. Multiplying (1/15) by (1/144) equals 0.05% or 1 in 2,160 booster packs, which is the estimated probability to pull a specific foil mythic from a booster pack. On average, it would require opening 35.33 booster boxes to find a particular foil rare and 60 booster boxes to find a specific foil mythic.

*The information in this article is my knowledge and opinion and is meant for informational purposes only. I am not a registered financial professional or trying to act as one.* ​