According to www.dictionary.com, "a self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to be true due to the behavior (including the act of predicting it) of the believer." I have noticed alarming increases in card price movement after Internet personalities and websites share Magic: The Gathering speculations publicly.
An article on Quiet Speculation by Sigmund Ausfresser highlighted the dangers of buyouts and price retracing. My takeaway from his article is that artificial demand, fueled by hype, will not hold price increases in the long run. A recent MTG finance-related YouTube video published by The Mana Source has received over 77,000 views since June 11, 2019. The suggested MTG speculations were not all original ideas. Other individuals recommended multiple cards in the video. Following the video's release, I researched price movements for the Return to Ravnica Supreme Verdict and Core 2019 Scapeshift. I wanted to see if these card prices were affected each time an online article or video suggested others to buy them. I used MTG Stocks information to gather historical data on average price changes for Supreme Verdict and Scapeshift.
Return to Ravnica Supreme Verdict
On May 6, 2019, Travis Allen recommended Supreme Verdict in his weekly article at MTG Price. Allen also co-hosts the MTG Fast Finance podcast. The average price of Supreme Verdict on May 6, 2019, was $4.80. Two days later, Rogue Deckbuilder's Rogue Roundup #14 also recommended Supreme Verdict as speculation. His video had over 3,600 views as of June 11, 2019. The average price of Supreme Verdict remained at $4.80 on May 13, 2019. Over the next week, the average price increased to $4.93. On May 26, 2019, The Mana Source published a video highlighting Supreme Verdict as one of the ten best cards to buy now. The next day, the average price of Supreme Verdict jumped to $5.06.
One event worth noting is the Star City Games Modern Open in Louisville, KY, held over Memorial Day weekend. Two copies of Supreme Verdict were in a Blue/White Control top 8 decklist for the Modern Open and Classic. This deck has been a top contender for some time and commonly plays two Supreme Verdict. In addition, Modern Horizons spoiler season was happening before and after the event. It was common knowledge that the set could dramatically change the Modern competitive landscape. Modern players were waiting for the full spoilers of Modern Horizons before making changes to existing decks. While the results of a significant event and spoilers can affect card prices, I believe these events had a negligible impact on the price of Supreme Verdict.
By June 3, 2019, the price of Supreme Verdict increased to $5.49. Later that week, on June 4, 2019, Rogue Deckbuilder published a video where he agreed with The Mana Source that Supreme Verdict was an excellent speculation target. Prices continued to climb to the current average price of $5.68 as of June 10, 2019. The average market price for Supreme Verdict increased 18.3% in 5 weeks. Within a week following The Mana Source's video, the average price of Supreme Verdict jumped 12.9% out of the overall 18.3% average price increase during the noted period.
Return to Ravnica Supreme Verdict Weekly Average Price Movements 5/6/19 - 6/10/19
Core 2019 Scapeshift
On April 11, 2019, an article published by Quiet Speculation highlighted Core 2019 Scapeshift as a speculation target. The average price for Scapeshift on April 8, 2019, was $8.24. By the following Monday, the average price increased 8.6% to $8.95. A few days later, on April 20, 2019, a Reddit user posted about Scapeshift on the MTGFinance subreddit. They claimed to have purchased multiple copies of Scapeshift, specifically the Morningtide version and asked others for input. The post attracted five comments and 15 upvotes. On April 22, 2019, the average price of Scapeshift had increased again to $9.50. I could not find any other mention of the card as a speculation target between April 21, 2019, and May 18, 2019. However, the average price continued increasing to $10.54 on May 13, 2019. By May 20, 2019, the average price of Scapeshift was $11.14, or a 35.2% increase in 6 weeks.
During Memorial Day weekend, multiple copies of Scapeshift appeared in the top 8 decks for the Star City Games Louisville Modern Open and Classic. I believe these event results had a minor impact on the price of Scapeshift for the same reasons mentioned about Supreme Verdict.
The Mana Source published a video recommending Scapeshift as a speculation target on May 26, 2019. The following day, the average price of Scapeshift was $11.43. Nine days later, Rogue Deckbuilder published his video, agreeing with The Mana Source's recommendation for Scapeshift. As of June 10, 2019, the price of Scapeshift was $14.43, or a 74.8% increase in 9 weeks. It is also worth noting that the average price of Scapeshift increased 36.0% during the 15 days following The Mana Source's video.
One theory for Scapeshift maintaining an upward price movement between April 21, 2019, and May 18, 2019, is if Modern Horizons spoiler cards leaked early. Content creators and online personalities received spoiler cards for Modern Horizons before their assigned reveal date. Content creators, or people they chose to share information with, could get an advantage on buying copies of a relevant or synergistic card. One theoretical example could be leaked information regarding Wrenn and Six, a Planeswalker revealed on May 25, 2019. The card has some synergy with Scapeshift. Individuals with early knowledge of Wrenn and Six could buy copies of Scapeshift before new demand drives up the price.
Core 2019 Scapeshift weekly Average Price Movements 4/8/19 - 6/10/19
Analyzing and Interpreting the Data
Both Supreme Verdict and Scapeshift have some inherent demand as competitive MTG cards in the Modern format. In addition, the cards get included in Commander decks. Prices will naturally change over time based on player demand and speculation. Players purchase cards found in top deck lists after significant tournaments such as Magic Fests, Mythic Championships, and Star City Games Opens. However, the dramatic price increases over a short period appear to be driven by additional factors.
What stands out to me most about the historical price movement is the velocity of price increases. The most significant average price increases for both cards from one week to the next occurred after The Mana Source published a speculation video. While I cannot know the number of people who read written articles, it is clear how many views a YouTube video receives. If 0.5% of the 77,000 views for The Mana Source's video resulted in 1 purchased copy of Scapeshift, that would equate to 385 copies leaving the market.
On June 13, 2019, TCGPlayer had 252 copies of Scapeshift for sale across all sets and editions. If people purchased all 252 copies on TCGPlayer, a triggered price spike would likely occur regardless of price. TCGPlayer's copies only account for 65.5% of the demand for 385 copies. Players would have to search other online vendors for any remaining copies to purchase. I believe this simple example illustrates the amount of influence a YouTube channel can have on MTG Finance when they amass as many subscribers as The Mana Source.
Rogue Deckbuilder's videos received thousands of views as well. Based on the price trends, I believe that a non-zero number of viewers purchase his recommended speculations. Any time someone with an audience publishes their speculation targets, there is a chance that a viewer will purchase a recommended card. The sample size presented is small as I highlight only two examples of card price movements. However, the price movement related to online videos and articles is compelling. My conclusion is that as audiences grow for an individual's MTG-related financial content, there is a possibility that a self-fulfilling prophecy could occur.
Risks Associated with Self-Fulfilling Content
There are risks associated with following the advice given by others regarding speculation targets. As seen in the price movements for Supreme Verdict and Scapeshift, the individuals buying cards after the information becomes public risk paying an inflated market price. Those who already own cards before a price spike has the best opportunity to maximize profits. If any of the individuals that published content surrounding the mentioned cards held copies before Memorial Day, they would have made double-digit profit margins selling copies in June. In addition, they would likely have the first chance to sell or buylist at the highest price because of already owning the cards. Other individuals that buy recommended speculations from online vendors must wait for their cards to arrive in the mail or visit a local hobby store. I assume any time a content creator or individual publicly recommends an MTG speculation target, they already own multiple copies of that card and want to see it increase in value.
There is an additional risk for buying cards after a price spike due to price retracing. The individuals who bought and sold the cards last have a higher likelihood of losing money. I touched on price retracing surrounding the buyout of Queen Marchesa in a previous article. The average market price for the card before its buyout was $19.99. After the buyout, the average price moved to $38.97 on April 8, 2019. Any individuals who already owned the card could have sold it for a healthy profit or buylisted to Card Kingdom for $24.00. As of June 13, 2019, the average market price of Queen Marchesa is $28.08 with a buylist price of $12.00. When factoring 20% of the sale price as fees and shipping, the net price for selling a Queen Marchesa online now is $22.46. Any copies of Queen Marchesa purchased for the average market price after April 6, 2019, will lose money when sold today.
*The information in this article is my knowledge and opinion and is meant for informational purposes only. I am not a registered financial professional or trying to act as one.*
Hawkers' food menu offers a wide variety of Asian-inspired dishes. Our server said that each dish is large enough to share between two individuals. We ordered a few of the recommended items including Bulgogi Chicken Skewers, Steamed Baos, Korean Twice Fried Wings, and Golden Wontons. The best dishes we had were the Twice Fried Wings and Steamed Baos. I thought the Singapore Meh Fun and Pad Thai were also tasty. Our least favorite dishes were the Golden Wantons and Siu Yoke. They both came out overcooked and did not meet expectations. Since there are so many options on the menu, I would not let one or two dishes define an overall experience. However, I plan to avoid ordering those two options in the future.
The beverage selection at Hawkers is quite large. They offer a wide variety of wine, cocktails, and beer. The full bar has something for everyone. Seating is spread throughout the restaurant with booths and bar chairs in the front. Additional table seating is in the back by the open-style kitchen. Additional patio seating wraps around the outside of the building.
In my opinion, the best part of dining at Hawkers is the atmosphere and decor. I enjoyed seeing the colorful posters, signs, and mix of decor. It is also interesting that each seating area has a different vibe. The food and drinks take a back seat to the atmosphere created at Hawkers. I recommend visiting just to experience something new and different in Charlotte, NC.
Card rarities in Magic: The Gathering comprise common, uncommon, rare, and mythic. Typically, each pack of cards contains ten commons, three uncommon, and one rare or mythic. Over time, players accumulate piles of commons and uncommon ones deemed unplayable in most formats of the game. These piles of extra cards are called bulk cards. Players often sell local gaming stores (LGS) a mix of 1,000 commons and uncommon (bulk) for $3.00 to $5.00 in-store credit or cash. An LGS will either organize the bulk cards for single selling or re-sell them at a higher price. For example, one of my LGS buys 1,000 bulk cards for $3.00 in-store credit. They will then sell a bundle box quantity (about 550 cards) of unsorted bulk for $5.00.
Why Pick Bulk?
Sifting through bulk cards is a time-consuming process. However, there is an incentive for players to look through bulk boxes. An LGS may buy a collection of cards from a player but not have the time to go through every card box. Unchecked boxes can end up on shelves for players to look through. There are many common and uncommon MTG worth multiple dollars. My favorite website to view valuable bulk cards by set is MTG Dawnglare. You can search by format or set to find common and uncommon cards worth over $1.00. Newer sets may contain valuable cards that players overlook. For example, Reliquary Tower from Core 2019 sells for about $3.00. You can buylist Reliquary Tower from a vendor for $1.50 each. Finding just four copies of Reliquary Tower will offset the $5.00 spent on 546 other cards. A few decent pulls from an unsorted box will allow you to keep the rest of the cards for essentially free. Any value gained from the remaining bulk cards can net a profit.
Beyond earning a profit, some players pick bulk because they want to build their card collection. It is much cheaper paying $0.01 per card in the example above than buying a single common and uncommon for $0.10 or more. Your time spent picking bulk can save money by acquiring cards you want at a discount. Players interested in the Pauper or Elder Dragon Highlander (EDH) formats may find bulk picking an excellent opportunity to save money.
My Tips for Effective Bulk Picking
1. Knowledge of the Most Played Commons and Uncommon in Constructed Formats
Part of successfully picking bulk is knowing what you should pull out of a card box. The most played cards are usually worth more than others of similar rarities. A great place to start is with MTGGoldfish's format staple lists. To maximize value, I would focus on the Modern and Legacy card lists. I have found better returns on older cards than most Standard-legal commons and uncommon.
2. Knowledge of the Most Played EDH Cards by Color
EDH is a popular format with a huge card pool. EDHREC has top played card lists by color, artifact, and land. I recommend grabbing guild signets, tri-color lands, and blue cards as a starting point. It would help if you also familiarize yourself with the list of top commanders. This list will help you focus on gold cards that share multiple colors. Currently, I have found Gruul (red and green) as the least popular color combination.
3. Reference a Buylist or MTG Dawnglare When Picking Bulk
It is beneficial to pull up a vendor buylist or MTG Dawnglare when picking through bulk. I like to sort prices by MTG set on vendor buylists to see what cards are worth money. I try to take cards that will generate $0.08 or higher in-store credit. Otherwise, I believe the return is not worth the time and effort after shipping costs. Also, I use MTG Dawnglare to see a list of valuable cards by set quickly. If I come across an MTG set with no commons and uncommon worth over $1.00, I will skip it entirely. For example, Theros only has Burnished Hart and Grey Merchant of Asphodel that I would consider pulling. Instead of spending time going through a box of Theros, I will skip it and move on to another set. I use this strategy for MTG sets that have valuable cards in one color. Avacyn Restored has one valuable uncommon called Blood Artist. If I come across this set, I will only look at the black cards.
4. Focus on Uncommon Rarity Symbols
Every MTG set beginning with Exodus uses colored rarity set symbols on cards. Commons cards are black and uncommon cards are silver. When sorting cards, I recommend looking for uncommon Silver cards. I generally skip through all common unless I recognize the artwork or the card name. The reason for doing this is because very few common cards hold value. It is a waste of time trying to look at every single card in a box. An exception to this rule is when I come across old sets like Zendikar, Fifth Dawn, and Dissension. Common cards can be worth a few dollars from these sets. I will also take my time looking through Modern Masters sets.
5. Make Piles of Cards From Sets Without Rarity Symbols
It is hard for most players to remember the rarities of cards from sets like Fourth Edition, Ice Age, and Visions. These sets do not contain rarity symbols on the cards. Some players overlook this trait and put rare cards in their bulk boxes. I strongly encourage you to set cards aside from these sets and check their values. Once you get a good-sized stack, you can quickly reference a vendor buylist or MTG Dawnglare. I often find valuable cards, including Reserved List cards, in bulk boxes from sets before Exodus.
6. Take Cards You Want to Play for Personal Use
If you enjoy playing MTG and want to build a personal collection, you should take cards to keep. I take cards for EDH and older formats that are popular with players. When I recently came across a bulk box of Zendikar commons, I set aside copies of Expedition Map and Journey to Nowhere for personal use. I keep around 15% of my bulk box pulls for playing in various MTG formats.
7. Know Shipping Costs When Buylisting Bulk to Online Vendors
It would help if you had a good gauge for the cost of mailing bulk cards to online vendors. A Reddit user reminded me that USPS offers small flat rate Priority Mail boxes. These boxes hold around 400 cards regardless of weight. You can send an entire package of bulk across the country to an online vendor for about $0.02 a card with a Priority Mail small flat rate box.
Picking bulk can be a profitable and rewarding way to build your MTG card collection. I believe setting thresholds and knowing what to pull will improve your efficiency and profitability. Keep in mind that your time has a value attached to it. Some may find picking bulk to be worth the effort to supplement MTG spending. Others may like the experience of finding valuable cards in a box of 3,000 cards. I enjoy looking through old cards and finding new options for EDH decks. Whatever your reason is for looking through bulk, I hope my tips improve your next picking experience.
My lovely wife, Ashley, will be contributing new content on various travel related topics. We just got back from a 19 day trip to Italy, including a stopover in London, England. Ashley planned the majority of our long vacation. While this was my first visit to Europe, she has been multiple times in the past. I hope you are as excited as I am about her future posts.
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