My Weekly Grind
  • Blog
  • Magic: The Gathering
  • MTG Finance
  • Homemade Sushi
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Travel
  • Japan 10 Day Guide
  • Japan Travels FAQS
  • Navigating Japan
  • Get In Touch
  • About Me

My Weekly Grind

Comparing Potential Value Between Magic: The Gathering Booster Packs and Lottery Scratch-Offs

1/31/2020

 
Magic: The Gathering booster packs are sealed product that players open to obtain collectible trading cards. Booster packs contain a large spread of potential value when opened. Players often open sealed booster packs to find expensive chase cards. In a previous article on probabilities of Magic: The Gathering booster packs, I calculated the likelihood of opening a chase card. Also, some players will open booster packs for a chance to receive a total value of cards that exceed the purchase price. This practice is often referred to as opening value.
​
In similar regard, individuals purchase lottery scratch-offs for a chance to receive a monetary amount greater than the purchase price. There are given odds to scratch a winning lottery card; however, those odds do not apply to all prizes available. A winning scratch-off could contain the value of the purchase price or a higher amount.

This article compares the probabilities of opening value between an MTG booster pack and a winning scratch-off card. The overall objective is to determine which option has a higher probability of earning a return greater than the purchase price. The base assumption is that an MTG booster pack and scratch-off cost USD 3.00 to buy. The reason I am using $3.00 is that many hobby shops value booster packs at $3.00 in store credit when giving out prizes. Also, some hobby shops offer players promotional pricing of 3 Standard set booster packs for $10.00. Additional data on the calculated probabilities are available here. Estimated value calculations for the Bingo Extra scratch-off and Throne of Eldraine booster pack can be found in the data file.
Picture
Throne of Eldraine booster pack sealed
Cards inside an opened Throne of Eldraine Booster Pack
Cards inside pictured Throne of Eldraine booster pack
Scratch-Off Probabilities
​The North Carolina Lottery has a $3.00 scratch-off game called Bingo Extra. This game has listed odds to scratch a winner at approximately 1 in 4. The top prize of $75,000 has approximate odds of 1 in 930,000. I am using this specific scratch-off game as an example because of the price per purchase and simplistic odds of winning. On December 11th, 2019, I recorded the remaining prizes available that were winners. Also, I recorded the number of prizes remaining at or over $100. The specific information is available in the provided data document found above. The breakdown to win various amounts of cash is as follows:
Picture
Bingo Extra scratch-off
Prize
Probability
% Probability
$100 and above
1 in 676
0.148%
Over $3.00
​1 in 6.71
14.894%
$3.00
1 in 9.89
10.106%
I would like to note that the percentages for $3.00 and over $3.00 equal 25.0% when added together. It appears that there is a higher percent chance to receive a value greater than $3.00 versus breaking even at $3.00. This is because the quantity of remaining prizes above $3.00 is greater than the availability of prizes at $3.00.

​Comparing Potential Value of Magic: The Gathering Booster Packs and Scratch-Offs
To compare MTG booster packs and scratch-offs, I need to make a few additional assumptions. The opportunity cost is saving $3.00 by not buying either item. Second, the value pulled from an MTG booster pack assumes you can sell the cards at an average market price. Potential selling fees and shipping are excluded in this comparison. Third, the cost of a booster pack and scratch-off are the same.

The variance in card value between MTG sets makes it challenging to provide an overall comparison. To simplify matters, I will compare scratch-offs to the Throne of Eldraine set as a representation of Standard booster packs. Using TCGPlayer MID pricing, Eldraine contains 9 mythic and 7 rare valued at $3.00 or higher (December 11th, 2019). The probability to pull a rare or mythic over $3.00 in a booster pack was 1 in 5.26 or 19.01%. When referencing TCGPlayer LOW pricing, the probability drops to 1 in 7.56 or 13.22%. These calculations do not include the chance to open a foil rare or mythic in a pack. The probabilities to open specific foil rare and mythic cards are very low and were excluded for simplicity. 
    
Recall that the Bingo Extra scratch-off game has given odds of 1 in 4 or 25%. The probability to break even on a scratch-off is higher than an Eldraine booster pack. Also, the calculated probability to win over $3.00 on a scratch-off is 14.89%. This percentage is lower than the TCGPlayer MID pricing for Eldraine but higher than the TCGPlayer LOW pricing. The preferred pricing method of a player may alter opinions of which option provides better value. 

My takeaway from this comparison is that scratch-offs may provide a higher probability than booster packs to at least break even. Scratch-offs also offers a larger potential payout with top prizes valued higher than any Standard set MTG card. On the other hand, booster packs may provide a higher probability to earn value above their purchase price. It also appears that the estimated values are similar between the Bingo Extra scratch-off and Throne of Eldraine booster pack. Whether you buy a scratch-off or booster pack, the probability to receive more in value than what was spent is relatively low. If you are uncomfortable buying scratch-offs, then you may want to avoid buying booster packs altogether. 

*The information in this article is of my knowledge and opinion. It is meant for informational purposes only. I am not a registered financial professional or trying to act as one.* ​
Picture
This scratch-off was not a winner
Gary Crispens
2/1/2020 12:33:35 pm

Great and in depth analysis. One factor to consider is that a losing $3 lottery ticket has no residual value, where a $3 Booster Pack does have some residual value. The cards may not be worth the full $3, but you do have playable cards.


Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Picture
    Follow Me
    ​on Instagram
    ​@card_knock_life

    Categories

    All
    Charlotte
    Culture
    Entertainment
    Food
    Italy
    Japan
    Magic: The Gathering
    MTG Commander
    MTG Finance
    MTG Speculation
    Sushi
    Travel

    Archives

    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017

    This website contains affiliate links to TCGPlayer
Proudly powered by Weebly
  • Blog
  • Magic: The Gathering
  • MTG Finance
  • Homemade Sushi
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Travel
  • Japan 10 Day Guide
  • Japan Travels FAQS
  • Navigating Japan
  • Get In Touch
  • About Me